[ET Net News Agency, 08 July 2026] The situation in the Middle East deteriorated sharply, causing all three major US stock indexes to close lower. However, after a slight correction yesterday (7 Jul), Hong Kong stocks showed their strength again this morning. The half-day southbound net inflow has exceeded HKD 10 billion. Resource stocks, AI concepts, tech and internet, and Mainland China banks surged collectively. The momentum of semi-new stocks with lock-up expiries remained sufficient, driving the HSI to break through its 20-day moving average (around 23,763) and the 24,000 level. It closed the morning session at 24,057, up 560 points or 2.4%, hitting a new high since 18 Jun. The Main Board turnover approached HKD 188.4 billion. The Hang Seng Mainland China Enterprises Index reported 8,009, up 239 points or 3.1%. The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 4,702, up 195 points or 4.3%.
"HSI breaks out to look towards 24,200, but guard against the alarm of oil prices breaching USD 80"
The HSI surged by over 400 points in early trading today, breaking through and stabilizing above the 20-day moving average in one fell swoop, recording gains in 4 trading days since the start of July. Lee Wai Kit, a financial commentator of TF International, told ET Net News Agency that the strong rebound in the market today was mainly benefited from a major rotation of capital. He pointed out that since the start of July, market capital has clearly shifted from the previously hyped AI computing power sector to traditional large tech stocks with lagging valuations, driving tech and internet blue chips to regain their upward momentum and pushing the HSI to undergo technical repair. Lee Wai Kit suggested that if investors already hold traditional tech stocks, they might as well look ahead for another week to observe the sustainability of the capital.
In addition, the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated sharply. Stimulated by news such as attacks on multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and US airstrikes on Iran, international oil prices surged immediately. Lee Wai Kit believes that the direct impact of the US-Iran situation on Hong Kong stocks is limited. The market focus is mainly on the inflationary pressure triggered by the soaring oil prices, which will directly shake the future trend of interest rates. He expects that if the oil price hovers around the USD 70 level, the overall impact on the investment market will not be significant. However, when the oil price breaks through the USD 80 mark, it will trigger a strong alarm, as inflationary pressure will increase substantially, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again will also skyrocket, bringing a negative shock to the broader market.
Looking ahead to the short-term trend of the HSI, Lee Wai Kit expects the market to look up towards 24,200 points in the short term, with the main resistance zone ranging between 24,000 and 24,200 points. He pointed out that if the market is to maintain an upward trend of higher peaks in the future, it must technically at least successfully break through and stabilize at the 24,000 to 24,200 point level, thereby constructing a new high-level consolidation platform before it can gather momentum to launch a further upward wave. As to whether the market can successfully pass this barrier in the future, he emphasized that it still mainly depends on whether heavyweight tech and internet stocks can exert strength again.
"Zhipu's lock-up expiry receives strong support and surges; experts urge a wait-and-see approach for subsequent deployment"
Apart from traditional sectors, the Hong Kong stock market has also recently welcomed a wave of lock-up expiries for AI concept stocks. The market originally worried that the expiration of the lock-up period for various rising AI stars would trigger cash-out selling pressure. However, looking at the actual performance of individual leading stocks, the confidence of institutional investors in long-term holding remains remarkably high, among which the performance of Zhipu (02513) upon its lock-up expiry is the most eye-catching. Market sources pointed out that nearly 70% of cornerstone investors have clearly expressed optimism about the company's long-term development and promised that they intend to continue holding the relevant shares. Driven by the reassurance from major holders, Zhipu performed strongly after the market opened today and is currently trading at HKD 1,899, surging by nearly 18%.
Lee Wai Kit stated that relevant large model concept stocks are expected to continue to benefit, and core shareholders also possess long-term holding confidence. However, he reminded investors that they still need to pay attention to whether the remaining 30% of cornerstone investors will have potential cash-out actions, and therefore suggested observing for a week first. In terms of technical trends, Zhipu's short-term support level can refer to the 50-day moving average at around HKD 1,375, while the short-term resistance level needs to look towards the large bearish candlestick position at the market opening in early July at around HKD 2,160.
As for another heavyweight GPU concept stock, Iluvatar CoreX (09903), it also followed the sector higher today, provisionally surging by about 11% and successfully stabilizing above the 50-day moving average. Lee Wai Kit pointed out that the ability of the stock price to stabilize above the key moving average reflects that the market remains optimistic about the stock's prospects in the medium to long term. Regarding the subsequent deployment for this stock, he similarly suggested that investors observe for a week first. Technically, its short-term support level falls on the 50-day moving average at around HKD 542, and the resistance level also looks at the bearish candlestick position at the market opening in early July at around HKD 706.
Lee Wai Kit concluded by advising that whether investors currently hold shares or intend to wait for an opportunity to deploy into the market, they should remain patient over the coming week and closely monitor whether cornerstone shareholders will have further reductions or transfers of shares, and make decisions after the capital flows have settled.
"HSI breaks out to look towards 24,200, but guard against the alarm of oil prices breaching USD 80"
The HSI surged by over 400 points in early trading today, breaking through and stabilizing above the 20-day moving average in one fell swoop, recording gains in 4 trading days since the start of July. Lee Wai Kit, a financial commentator of TF International, told ET Net News Agency that the strong rebound in the market today was mainly benefited from a major rotation of capital. He pointed out that since the start of July, market capital has clearly shifted from the previously hyped AI computing power sector to traditional large tech stocks with lagging valuations, driving tech and internet blue chips to regain their upward momentum and pushing the HSI to undergo technical repair. Lee Wai Kit suggested that if investors already hold traditional tech stocks, they might as well look ahead for another week to observe the sustainability of the capital.
In addition, the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated sharply. Stimulated by news such as attacks on multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and US airstrikes on Iran, international oil prices surged immediately. Lee Wai Kit believes that the direct impact of the US-Iran situation on Hong Kong stocks is limited. The market focus is mainly on the inflationary pressure triggered by the soaring oil prices, which will directly shake the future trend of interest rates. He expects that if the oil price hovers around the USD 70 level, the overall impact on the investment market will not be significant. However, when the oil price breaks through the USD 80 mark, it will trigger a strong alarm, as inflationary pressure will increase substantially, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again will also skyrocket, bringing a negative shock to the broader market.
Looking ahead to the short-term trend of the HSI, Lee Wai Kit expects the market to look up towards 24,200 points in the short term, with the main resistance zone ranging between 24,000 and 24,200 points. He pointed out that if the market is to maintain an upward trend of higher peaks in the future, it must technically at least successfully break through and stabilize at the 24,000 to 24,200 point level, thereby constructing a new high-level consolidation platform before it can gather momentum to launch a further upward wave. As to whether the market can successfully pass this barrier in the future, he emphasized that it still mainly depends on whether heavyweight tech and internet stocks can exert strength again.
"Zhipu's lock-up expiry receives strong support and surges; experts urge a wait-and-see approach for subsequent deployment"
Apart from traditional sectors, the Hong Kong stock market has also recently welcomed a wave of lock-up expiries for AI concept stocks. The market originally worried that the expiration of the lock-up period for various rising AI stars would trigger cash-out selling pressure. However, looking at the actual performance of individual leading stocks, the confidence of institutional investors in long-term holding remains remarkably high, among which the performance of Zhipu (02513) upon its lock-up expiry is the most eye-catching. Market sources pointed out that nearly 70% of cornerstone investors have clearly expressed optimism about the company's long-term development and promised that they intend to continue holding the relevant shares. Driven by the reassurance from major holders, Zhipu performed strongly after the market opened today and is currently trading at HKD 1,899, surging by nearly 18%.
Lee Wai Kit stated that relevant large model concept stocks are expected to continue to benefit, and core shareholders also possess long-term holding confidence. However, he reminded investors that they still need to pay attention to whether the remaining 30% of cornerstone investors will have potential cash-out actions, and therefore suggested observing for a week first. In terms of technical trends, Zhipu's short-term support level can refer to the 50-day moving average at around HKD 1,375, while the short-term resistance level needs to look towards the large bearish candlestick position at the market opening in early July at around HKD 2,160.
As for another heavyweight GPU concept stock, Iluvatar CoreX (09903), it also followed the sector higher today, provisionally surging by about 11% and successfully stabilizing above the 50-day moving average. Lee Wai Kit pointed out that the ability of the stock price to stabilize above the key moving average reflects that the market remains optimistic about the stock's prospects in the medium to long term. Regarding the subsequent deployment for this stock, he similarly suggested that investors observe for a week first. Technically, its short-term support level falls on the 50-day moving average at around HKD 542, and the resistance level also looks at the bearish candlestick position at the market opening in early July at around HKD 706.
Lee Wai Kit concluded by advising that whether investors currently hold shares or intend to wait for an opportunity to deploy into the market, they should remain patient over the coming week and closely monitor whether cornerstone shareholders will have further reductions or transfers of shares, and make decisions after the capital flows have settled.
