'Talking Politics and Economics' Today (30th) is the last trading day before the holiday for A-shares. Part of domestic capital should be allocated domestically, but some may also be deployed in Hong Kong. What stocks should they buy?
First, looking at the market performance around National Day over the past fifteen years, there were 9 instances of decline before the holiday. However, in 8 of those 9 cases, the market rose after the holiday. Moreover, the greater the pre-holiday decline, the stronger the post-holiday rise. Given the significant drop in the past two days, the risk of holding stocks over the holiday is relatively reduced, making it worth considering holding stocks.
If holding stocks, which ones should be held? Consider yesterday's hot sectors in the A-share market.
1. Real Estate Sector Active
The real estate and rental rights sectors surged collectively. Binjiang Group (SZ: 002244), Cinda Real Estate (SH: 600657), and Hualian Holdings (SZ: 000036) hit their trading limits, while Vanke A (SZ: 000002) touched its limit during trading.
*Stabilizing measures for the property market introduced*
On the news front, the State Council's executive meeting held on September 28 pointed out the introduction of a batch of practical and effective incremental policies, including measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth.
2. PCB Concept Rebounds with Volatility
PCB (printed circuit board), copper foil, and electronic components concepts strengthened, with Yidun Electronics (SH: 603328), Aoshikang (SZ: 002913), and others hitting their trading limits.
Recently, multiple research reports pointed out that as upstream raw material prices continue to rise, PCB manufacturers have gradually initiated repricing. This phenomenon marks the unblocking of the industry chain's price transmission mechanism, and it is expected that the third quarter of 2026 will become the starting point for improved sector profitability.
3. Solid-State Battery Concept Strengthens
The solid-state battery and sodium-ion battery sectors rebounded, with Wuhan Blue Electric (BJ: 920779), Shangshui Intelligence (SZ: 301513), Shanghai Xiba (SH: 603200), Guoxuan High-tech (SZ: 002074), and Jinlongyu (SZ: 002882) hitting their trading limits.
On the news front, the '15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of New Battery Industries,' jointly formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments, was officially released on September 28. The plan sets a goal to achieve initial large-scale application of all-solid-state batteries by 2030.
4. AI Application Concepts Active Again
AI manga, AI film and television, cultural media, and other AI application concepts became active again, with Xinhua Media (SH: 600825), Zhangyue Technology (SH: 603533), and others hitting their trading limits.
On the news front, on September 27, during the 10th Pingyao International Film Festival, ByteDance's Volcano Engine officially launched the Seedance Film and Television Collaboration Program, offering token subsidies, promotional resources, and technical and tool support to global professional film and television projects, with incentives of up to one million RMB per project.
*Trading volume shrinks before the holiday, increases after*
Dongwu Securities pointed out in its latest research report that before and after China's National Day holiday, A-shares often exhibit the characteristic of 'volume contraction before the holiday and expansion after.' This calendar effect in the A-share market is not merely a statistical phenomenon; it reflects deeper trading behavior logic and economic operating rules.
The long holiday means volatility in overseas markets and external uncertainties cannot be hedged during the market closure. For risk-aversion purposes, some funds choose to reduce positions and wait, leading to a decline in market activity. Combined with the end of the third quarter, institutions have profit-taking demands to realize earlier gains and lock in performance, along with portfolio rebalancing at the quarterly level, collectively suppressing market performance before the holiday.
The firm analyzed that, in light of the seasonal pattern of the 'National Day effect,' the market has now entered a phase of sentiment recovery, and the rebound will continue. If significant positive developments emerge later in AI or macroeconomic conditions, expectations for the rebound can be upgraded. In terms of allocation, AI hardware currently shows solid near-term profitability, and long-term growth prospects remain unchallenged. Combined with relatively sufficient stock price adjustments, it remains an important avenue for achieving excess returns.
Additionally, as the AI industry develops and large model penetration rates continue to rise, opportunities in the midstream and downstream of AI should be emphasized. Attention can be paid to supporting tools brought by AI application penetration, AI middleware sectors, and Workflow/Agent orchestration platforms with solid native SaaS foundations.
*Hong Kong stock valuation recovery constrained by liquidity*
Huatai Securities noted that from a medium-term perspective, Hong Kong stock valuation recovery space may still be suppressed by global liquidity levels. Therefore, it continues to recommend holding dividends as a core position, but controlling exposure to sectors where dividend yield advantages relative to A-shares are converging and payout ratio improvements are difficult, such as banking and coal, while increasing allocation to more cost-effective sectors like oil and gas. From a short-term perspective, leading innovative drug and CXO firms in the U.S. saw some recovery after the Fed rate hike decision, and can continue to be held, though with limited elasticity, requiring stock selection and setting profit-taking levels.
Guotou Securities pointed out that in housing policies, Beijing is the first city to implement detailed measures, with strong demonstration effects. Raising pre-sale thresholds and closed-loop fund supervision lengthens the cash recovery cycle, benefiting developers with ample funds and strong delivery capabilities, accelerating industry differentiation. Homebuyers' delivery risks are reduced, potentially restoring market confidence. According to data monitored by the China Index Academy, as of September 24, over 870 real estate-related policies have been introduced nationwide.
Everbright Securities stated that automakers have strong willingness to advance solid-state batteries, and demand for pilot production lines is gradually being released. Solid-state battery manufacturing differs fundamentally from existing liquid battery production lines, meaning core production equipment faces new demand. In the medium term, the industrialization process of solid-state batteries is clearly accelerating, with increasing demand for higher-capacity pilot and mass production lines. Equipment companies capable of full-line delivery will benefit first.
Will the performance around National Day over the past fifteen years again lead to a strong post-holiday surge? Something to consider.
(Investing involves risks, and each investor's risk tolerance varies; independent thinking is essential. The author will trade according to market conditions.)
*Articles published in 'Economic Times,' signed and/or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions and do not reflect the stance of 'Economic Times.' 'Economic Times' plays the role of providing a free speech platform.
First, looking at the market performance around National Day over the past fifteen years, there were 9 instances of decline before the holiday. However, in 8 of those 9 cases, the market rose after the holiday. Moreover, the greater the pre-holiday decline, the stronger the post-holiday rise. Given the significant drop in the past two days, the risk of holding stocks over the holiday is relatively reduced, making it worth considering holding stocks.
If holding stocks, which ones should be held? Consider yesterday's hot sectors in the A-share market.
1. Real Estate Sector Active
The real estate and rental rights sectors surged collectively. Binjiang Group (SZ: 002244), Cinda Real Estate (SH: 600657), and Hualian Holdings (SZ: 000036) hit their trading limits, while Vanke A (SZ: 000002) touched its limit during trading.
*Stabilizing measures for the property market introduced*
On the news front, the State Council's executive meeting held on September 28 pointed out the introduction of a batch of practical and effective incremental policies, including measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth.
2. PCB Concept Rebounds with Volatility
PCB (printed circuit board), copper foil, and electronic components concepts strengthened, with Yidun Electronics (SH: 603328), Aoshikang (SZ: 002913), and others hitting their trading limits.
Recently, multiple research reports pointed out that as upstream raw material prices continue to rise, PCB manufacturers have gradually initiated repricing. This phenomenon marks the unblocking of the industry chain's price transmission mechanism, and it is expected that the third quarter of 2026 will become the starting point for improved sector profitability.
3. Solid-State Battery Concept Strengthens
The solid-state battery and sodium-ion battery sectors rebounded, with Wuhan Blue Electric (BJ: 920779), Shangshui Intelligence (SZ: 301513), Shanghai Xiba (SH: 603200), Guoxuan High-tech (SZ: 002074), and Jinlongyu (SZ: 002882) hitting their trading limits.
On the news front, the '15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of New Battery Industries,' jointly formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments, was officially released on September 28. The plan sets a goal to achieve initial large-scale application of all-solid-state batteries by 2030.
4. AI Application Concepts Active Again
AI manga, AI film and television, cultural media, and other AI application concepts became active again, with Xinhua Media (SH: 600825), Zhangyue Technology (SH: 603533), and others hitting their trading limits.
On the news front, on September 27, during the 10th Pingyao International Film Festival, ByteDance's Volcano Engine officially launched the Seedance Film and Television Collaboration Program, offering token subsidies, promotional resources, and technical and tool support to global professional film and television projects, with incentives of up to one million RMB per project.
*Trading volume shrinks before the holiday, increases after*
Dongwu Securities pointed out in its latest research report that before and after China's National Day holiday, A-shares often exhibit the characteristic of 'volume contraction before the holiday and expansion after.' This calendar effect in the A-share market is not merely a statistical phenomenon; it reflects deeper trading behavior logic and economic operating rules.
The long holiday means volatility in overseas markets and external uncertainties cannot be hedged during the market closure. For risk-aversion purposes, some funds choose to reduce positions and wait, leading to a decline in market activity. Combined with the end of the third quarter, institutions have profit-taking demands to realize earlier gains and lock in performance, along with portfolio rebalancing at the quarterly level, collectively suppressing market performance before the holiday.
The firm analyzed that, in light of the seasonal pattern of the 'National Day effect,' the market has now entered a phase of sentiment recovery, and the rebound will continue. If significant positive developments emerge later in AI or macroeconomic conditions, expectations for the rebound can be upgraded. In terms of allocation, AI hardware currently shows solid near-term profitability, and long-term growth prospects remain unchallenged. Combined with relatively sufficient stock price adjustments, it remains an important avenue for achieving excess returns.
Additionally, as the AI industry develops and large model penetration rates continue to rise, opportunities in the midstream and downstream of AI should be emphasized. Attention can be paid to supporting tools brought by AI application penetration, AI middleware sectors, and Workflow/Agent orchestration platforms with solid native SaaS foundations.
*Hong Kong stock valuation recovery constrained by liquidity*
Huatai Securities noted that from a medium-term perspective, Hong Kong stock valuation recovery space may still be suppressed by global liquidity levels. Therefore, it continues to recommend holding dividends as a core position, but controlling exposure to sectors where dividend yield advantages relative to A-shares are converging and payout ratio improvements are difficult, such as banking and coal, while increasing allocation to more cost-effective sectors like oil and gas. From a short-term perspective, leading innovative drug and CXO firms in the U.S. saw some recovery after the Fed rate hike decision, and can continue to be held, though with limited elasticity, requiring stock selection and setting profit-taking levels.
Guotou Securities pointed out that in housing policies, Beijing is the first city to implement detailed measures, with strong demonstration effects. Raising pre-sale thresholds and closed-loop fund supervision lengthens the cash recovery cycle, benefiting developers with ample funds and strong delivery capabilities, accelerating industry differentiation. Homebuyers' delivery risks are reduced, potentially restoring market confidence. According to data monitored by the China Index Academy, as of September 24, over 870 real estate-related policies have been introduced nationwide.
Everbright Securities stated that automakers have strong willingness to advance solid-state batteries, and demand for pilot production lines is gradually being released. Solid-state battery manufacturing differs fundamentally from existing liquid battery production lines, meaning core production equipment faces new demand. In the medium term, the industrialization process of solid-state batteries is clearly accelerating, with increasing demand for higher-capacity pilot and mass production lines. Equipment companies capable of full-line delivery will benefit first.
Will the performance around National Day over the past fifteen years again lead to a strong post-holiday surge? Something to consider.
(Investing involves risks, and each investor's risk tolerance varies; independent thinking is essential. The author will trade according to market conditions.)
*Articles published in 'Economic Times,' signed and/or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions and do not reflect the stance of 'Economic Times.' 'Economic Times' plays the role of providing a free speech platform.
